Analysis
The fortress belt cities were hardened over years of war: underground logistics, layered defenses, and garrisoned units make them costly to take. Russia’s strategy has been to grind forward methodically, accepting slow progress to avoid the catastrophic street-fighting losses of earlier phases.
Ukraine is gambling on attrition in return. Holding each fortress city forces Moscow to commit manpower and equipment it cannot easily replace, while Ukrainian drones and long-range strikes keep reaching Russian logistics hubs and warehouses far behind the front line.
The outcome will shape the next round of diplomacy. If the belt holds, Ukraine strengthens its negotiating position; if key cities fall, pressure mounts on Kyiv and its allies. Either way, the coming weeks are likely to define the war’s trajectory through the rest of 2026.