Analysis
Climate scientists are blunt: the scale and intensity of this fire season is consistent with a warmer, drier Europe. Higher temperatures, lower summer rainfall and longer fire seasons have pushed wildfire risk into regions that historically would not have seen it — Belgium, the Netherlands, and parts of central Europe are now on the EU's high-risk list.
The operational gap is widening. In many countries, the EU's mutual civil protection mechanism has been overstretched, with requests for firefighting aircraft outpacing availability. Volunteers are filling the gap, but the long-term answer is bigger pre-positioned resources and faster cross-border coordination.
Looking ahead, the political risk is significant. With national elections looming in France and Spain, governments are under pressure to be seen as in control — even as the climate signal continues to point to more dangerous fire seasons ahead.