Analysis
The earnings tell the story of a market that has been locked in a tight range for months. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Russian attacks on Black Sea export infrastructure, and the broader breakdown of the post-pandemic oil order have all combined to keep prices elevated — and the oil majors have been the biggest beneficiaries.
For ExxonMobil, the quarter was about more than just price. The company has spent the past two years aggressively cutting costs and reshaping its portfolio, and the result is a leaner operation that converts a higher-margin barrel into a much bigger bottom line than even its own guidance suggested.
The political reaction is only just beginning. With US gasoline prices firm and European gas markets still jumpy, the next round of earnings will be a flashpoint between the oil majors and the political class — both in Washington and in the major producing countries.